Brazil Bans 27 Prediction Market Platforms

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has barred 27 organisations from operating in the country after determining that their “prediction market” models were effectively functioning as unlicensed betting platforms. The move forms part of broader enforcement efforts within Brazil’s evolving digital betting landscape.

Authorities found that these companies marketed their services as investment or derivative-based products, but in practice allowed users to wager on outcomes in a manner similar to gambling. As a result, regulators concluded that the platforms were operating outside the legal framework governing both betting and financial markets in Brazil.

The affected platforms enabled users to speculate on a wide range of events not permitted under local betting laws. These included political outcomes, election results, economic indicators, sporting events, cultural awards and even international geopolitical developments. Participants would receive payouts based on the accuracy of their predictions.

The enforcement action follows a resolution introduced by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on 24 April. Under the new rules, derivative trading is limited to financial and economic indicators and must be supervised by the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). The resolution effectively bans contracts linked to non-financial events, preventing the growth of unregulated prediction-based markets.

Regulators determined that the business model used by these platforms closely resembled gambling activity, despite being presented as financial instruments. Officials noted that such operations fall outside established regulatory boundaries and may expose users to financial and social risks.

As a result of the decision, access to these platforms within Brazil will be restricted, impacting both domestic and international operators active in this space. Among the services affected are well-known prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

The ban specifically targets prediction-based platforms and does not apply to licensed betting operators. Regulated sportsbooks and online casinos will continue to operate under existing rules, offering wagers based on predefined odds within approved categories.

The decision marks a significant regulatory step, requiring affected companies to either adjust their models to comply with Brazilian law or exit the market entirely.