Macau GGR Growth Slows in April After Strong March

Macau’s gaming sector may continue to expand into April, but analysts predict growth will be slower than March’s 15% year-on-year surge in gross gaming revenue. Investors are increasingly focused on operator profitability amid global economic uncertainty.

Slower Growth Expected in April
In March, Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.61 billion ($2.80 billion), according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Seaport Research Partners projects a 12% year-on-year rise in April, while JP Morgan Securities and Deutsche Bank expect roughly a 10% increase, bringing revenue to around MOP20.7 billion.

Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that growth may ease in the second half of 2026, with the first half forecast at 9.8% and the latter slowing to 4.4%, unless demand improves or liquidity strengthens. Full-year growth is projected at 7%.

Investor Attention Shifts to Profitability
Analysts highlight that market focus is moving from top-line revenue to EBITDA impact. Geopolitical risks and concerns over the Chinese economy have influenced investor sentiment, but gaming valuations remain appealing for operators with Macau exposure.

Operator Performance in Q1 2026
Among the city’s six major operators, MGM China Holdings and Melco Resorts & Entertainment recorded the largest share gains from February, while Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment saw declines. Seaport estimates Q1 GGR grew 14.2% year-on-year, with Melco, Sands and Wynn Macau gaining market share, whereas SJM, MGM and Galaxy lost ground.

JP Morgan expects April GGR to remain at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, the same as March, while noting March was still below Q4 2025’s 92% benchmark.

Premium vs Base Mass
Seaport observes continued strength in premium mass revenue, running roughly 170% above 2019 levels, whereas base mass play remains about 15% below pre-pandemic benchmarks. Day-tripper demand from Hong Kong and Guangdong has rebounded close to 2019 levels, but overnight base mass is still below 75–80% of pre-COVID levels.

The gap between premium and base mass remains critical for Macau’s next growth phase, particularly if expansion slows in the coming months.