Macau Projects MOP92.7B in 2026 Tax Revenue

Macau’s government expects to collect roughly MOP92.7 billion (US$11.6 billion) in taxes from public concessions in 2026, according to the city’s newly released Policy Address. The projection marks a slight dip from this year’s estimate of MOP93.3 billion (US$11.7 billion).

Gaming Taxes Remain the Core Revenue Source

Most of the 2026 forecast continues to be driven by gaming taxes, which make up the majority of concession income. Macau applies a 40% tax rate on casino gross gaming revenue, a structure established with the launch of the current 10-year concession cycle on 1 January 2023. The system is designed to maintain stable government earnings while providing regulatory oversight during uncertain economic periods.

Collections Through the First Ten Months

From January to October 2025, Macau collected about MOP77.5 billion (US$9.68 billion) in gaming tax revenue, an increase of 6.1% compared to the same period in 2024. Total government revenue for the period reached MOP92.6 billion (US$11.6 billion), with gaming contributions accounting for nearly 79%.

The administration’s 2025 budget set a target of MOP93.1 billion (US$11.6 billion) in gaming tax receipts and current data shows the city has already achieved 87.5% of that goal. Still, officials warn that meeting year-end expectations remains uncertain.

Vulnerability to External Pressures

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai recently acknowledged that gross gaming revenue (GGR) is tracking below early-year expectations and is unlikely to hit the government’s initial forecast. He stressed that Macau’s casino performance is still highly dependent on external economic conditions, with weather disruptions and broader market fluctuations further weighing on results.

Given the unpredictability surrounding regional and global economic trends, the government has opted not to issue a formal GGR estimate for 2026. Earlier this year, authorities cut the 2025 GGR projection by about 5%, from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion (US$28.5 billion). Although tourism numbers continue to climb, inconsistent external conditions have limited the impact on gaming revenue.

Economic Uncertainty Persists

Despite tourism improvements, steady growth in gaming tax income has not materialized, prompting a cautious stance from policymakers. Officials stressed that Macau must closely monitor global economic pressures, natural disruptions and other risks that could affect future tax performance.

The 2026 revenue outlook underscores how central the gaming sector remains to Macau’s fiscal stability. While diversification efforts continue, the city’s heavy dependence on gaming revenue highlights ongoing challenges in navigating a volatile economic environment.