S&P Upgrades NagaCorp Despite Recovery Risks
S&P Global Ratings expects NagaCorp Ltd to continue improving profitability over the next two years, forecasting profit growth of between 5% and 6% during 2026 and 2027.
Despite the positive outlook, S&P stated that a return to the company’s 2019 profit levels remains unlikely in the near term due to the slower recovery of its business operations.
NagaCorp owns and operates NagaWorld under a long-term monopoly agreement in Phnom Penh. S&P recently upgraded the company’s long-term issuer credit rating from B to B+ with a stable outlook.
The latest assessment follows a recent upgrade from Moody’s, which raised NagaCorp’s corporate family rating from B3 to B2 while maintaining a stable outlook.
According to S&P analysts Johann Tan, Isabel Goh and Shawn Park, NagaCorp recorded a strong financial improvement during 2025. The company reported net income of US$309.9 million for the year, compared to US$110.6 million in 2024, while EBITDA increased to US$404.4 million from US$202.8 million.
However, S&P noted that the company’s EBITDA remains below the approximately US$667 million reported in 2019, when VIP referral business and junket operations contributed around 70% of gross gaming revenue. The agency said that segment is unlikely to recover to previous levels.
For the first quarter of 2026, NagaCorp generated gross gaming revenue of nearly US$174.7 million, representing a 2.1% year-on-year increase. Growth was primarily supported by mass-market gaming activity, while VIP revenue continued to decline.
S&P also highlighted the company’s financial position, noting that NagaCorp held around US$372 million in cash at the end of 2025 alongside a US$70 million shareholder loan due this month. The agency stated that the company’s low leverage and cash reserves continue to support its credit profile.
The report added that NagaCorp has maintained cash flow stability by limiting dividend payments and capital expenditure since 2022.
S&P also warned that more aggressive shareholder distributions or increased investment spending could place pressure on the company’s balance sheet, particularly in relation to the proposed Naga 3 development.
NagaCorp confirmed in December that it had terminated a subscription agreement previously intended to fund the Naga 3 expansion project, although the company stated that it still plans to proceed with the development using a revised scale and investment structure.
S&P estimates that NagaCorp’s capital expenditure could reach around US$170 million in 2026 before increasing to approximately US$380 million in 2027 as development activity linked to Naga 3 continues.
