Brazil Betting Study Figures Disputed by ANJL

A recent study by Brazil’s National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) has drawn attention by claiming that online betting has diverted R$143.8 billion from the country’s retail sector. However, the figure has been challenged by industry representatives, who argue that the methodology behind the estimate is flawed.

Disputed Figures

According to Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, the regulated betting market generated around R$37 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), which reflects actual player losses. In contrast, CNC’s report suggests monthly betting turnover of roughly R$29 billion, implying an annual figure above R$340 billion.

Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), said the discrepancy highlights a misunderstanding of how betting activity is measured.

Turnover vs Real Spending

Jorge pointed out that the study appears to confuse total transaction volume with real consumer expenditure. In betting, funds are often reused multiple times as players place successive wagers, meaning the same money can circulate repeatedly within a single session.

He argued that counting every transaction as new spending leads to inflated totals that do not accurately reflect actual losses by players.

Questioning Debt Claims

The CNC report also links betting activity to rising household debt. However, Jorge noted that the report itself does not provide evidence that families are borrowing specifically to gamble.

He stressed that without clear data connecting betting to increased indebtedness, such conclusions remain speculative.

Player Spending Patterns

Data from the Ministry of Finance and Pay4Fun indicate that around 28 million people in Brazil engage in betting, with varied spending habits. More than half spend R$50 or less, while a smaller share places higher-value bets exceeding R$1,000.

Estimates from LCA Economic Consultancy suggest average monthly net betting expenditure stands at R$122 per person, representing about 3.3% of income.

Broader Economic Pressures

Jorge acknowledged that household debt is a real issue but argued it is driven primarily by broader economic conditions. High interest rates, expensive credit and limited income growth were identified as key factors.

According to figures cited in his analysis, interest payments account for 8.6% of household income, while revolving credit card rates can reach 438%, with default rates at 64.5%.

Changing Consumer Behaviour

He also noted that shifts in consumer spending cannot be attributed solely to betting. Trends such as a 31% increase in food e-commerce in 2025 and the rising use of delivery apps are also influencing how people allocate their money.

Call for Better Analysis

Jorge concluded that discussions around betting should rely on accurate data and sound economic reasoning. He argued that focusing on inflated figures risks overlooking the structural issues affecting household finances and could lead to misguided policy decisions.