CBRE Forecasts 8.3% Macau GGR Growth in 2026

CBRE Equity Research has projected continued growth for Macau’s gaming sector in 2026, forecasting gross gaming revenue (GGR) to increase by 8.3% year-on-year. This estimate exceeds the broader market consensus by around 2 percentage points and follows a total GGR of MOP247.40 billion recorded in 2025, based on official data.

The firm’s outlook is supported by expectations of stable economic conditions in China, including projected GDP growth of between 4.5% and 5.0%. Analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh noted that Macau’s gaming performance is likely to outperform the current consensus forecast of 6.0% growth for the year.

This assessment follows a strong first quarter, with GGR reaching MOP65.87 billion for the three months ending March 31, representing a 14.3% increase compared to the same period last year. CBRE indicated that achieving only the consensus figure would require a significant slowdown in the remaining quarters, which it does not anticipate.

The analysts also expect Macau’s gaming revenue growth to outpace mainland China’s economic expansion, supported by targeted stimulus measures that could sustain consumer spending and overall demand.

Stronger revenue trends are also expected to support EBITDA growth across operators. CBRE highlighted that first-quarter results were sufficient to maintain earnings momentum, even for companies that may have sacrificed market share in favor of improved profitability.

At the same time, there are indications that cost pressures across Macau’s six casino operators are beginning to stabilize. Promotional spending and operating expenses rose notably in late 2025, with commission payments increasing 21% year-on-year and reaching 19.2% of GGR, while non-tax operating costs climbed 8.6%.

According to CBRE, elevated promotional activity has been driven in part by specific operators, including Las Vegas Sands Corp, which has been actively working to regain market share. While such spending is expected to remain elevated, the firm believes it will become more consistent throughout 2026.

Investment in entertainment offerings is another factor expected to support market growth. CBRE suggests that these developments could help attract more visitors, particularly within the base mass segment, which has yet to fully return to pre-pandemic levels.

Overall, the research points to a year of steady expansion for Macau’s gaming industry, supported by resilient demand, stabilizing costs and ongoing efforts to enhance the destination’s appeal to a broader range of visitors.