CEP: Chile Online Gambling GGR to Reach US$450M

A new report from the Center for Public Studies (CEP) estimates that Chile’s online gambling market will generate CLP 431.489 billion (approximately US$450 million) in gross gaming revenue (GGR) during 2025. The study argues that the country’s current regulatory framework has not kept pace with the rapid expansion of online gambling platforms.

According to the report, Chile’s gambling laws were originally designed for land-based gambling, relying on territorial licensing, on-site supervision and limited operating authorizations. Researchers noted that these rules are increasingly out of step with online gambling, which operates across borders, adapts quickly to new technologies and reaches consumers directly through digital channels.

Online Gambling Continues to Expand

The CEP estimates that Chile’s regulated gambling industry will generate CLP 787.281 billion in GGR during 2025, producing around CLP 148.712 billion in gambling tax revenue, excluding VAT and corporate income tax. Land-based casinos are expected to account for roughly 70% of the regulated market.

Meanwhile, the report estimates that illegal online gambling will produce CLP 431.489 billion in GGR during the same period, representing around 35% of the revenue generated by the regulated sector.

Based on a hypothetical 20% tax rate on gross gaming revenue, researchers estimate that the government could miss out on approximately CLP 86.298 billion in potential tax revenue during 2025.

The report also notes that this estimate closely aligns with previous government projections, which anticipated annual tax revenue of CLP 84.090 billion from a future regulatory framework for online betting. According to the researchers, this similarity provides additional support for the scale of their estimates.

Researchers Highlight Methodology Limitations

The study relied on an indirect estimation model using historical data from Chile’s regulated gambling market between 2013 and 2018.

Researchers stressed that the figures should be viewed as estimates rather than precise measurements. They explained that the calculated gap does not directly measure the online gambling market but instead compares current market performance with historical trends that might have continued without the disruption caused by the pandemic.

The report also acknowledged that changes in consumer behaviour, the lasting effects of COVID-19, slower growth in some gambling segments and structural changes within the land-based industry may have influenced the results.

Even so, researchers said the continued gap following the reopening of physical gambling venues suggests that a significant share of gambling activity may have shifted toward unauthorized online operators.

Regulatory Gaps Remain

Beyond estimating market size, the report argues that online gambling has become a major part of Chile’s gambling industry while continuing to operate largely outside the existing legal framework.

According to the study, current legislation remains focused on traditional casinos, racetracks and lottery operators, creating challenges for supervising online gambling platforms effectively.

Researchers also identified several regulatory areas that require further attention, including consumer protection, anti-money laundering measures, sports integrity and responsible gambling, as online gambling continues to increase its share of the market.