China Sets 4.5–5% Growth Target for 2026

China has set its economic growth target for 2026 at between 4.5% and 5%, a range widely described by media outlets as the country’s most cautious target since 1991. The goal was announced during the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in Beijing, where Premier Li Qiang presented the government’s work report and outlined economic priorities for the year. The target reflects a measured approach as China begins the transition into its 15th Five-Year Plan period covering 2026 to 2030.

Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators

Premier Li Qiang indicated that China plans to maintain a “moderately accommodative” monetary policy in 2026 in order to support economic stability. Alongside GDP growth, the government has outlined several additional indicators aimed at supporting overall economic performance.

Authorities aim to create more than 12 million urban jobs during the year while maintaining the surveyed urban unemployment rate at around 5.5%. Consumer price growth is expected to remain near 2%. Income growth for residents is projected to move in line with broader economic performance, while the country’s balance of payments is expected to stay stable.

On the production side, China intends to keep grain output at approximately 1.4 trillion jin, equivalent to around 700 million tonnes. At the same time, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP are expected to decline by roughly 3.8%.

Fiscal Expansion to Support Growth

To reinforce its growth objectives, the government plans to implement an expansionary fiscal policy. The budget deficit has been set at 4% of GDP, amounting to roughly RMB 5.89 trillion ($854 billion). This represents an increase of RMB 230 billion ($33.4 billion) compared with the previous year.

The combination of supportive fiscal measures and accommodative monetary policy signals that the government intends to rely on policy tools to reach the 4.5% to 5% growth objective. However, the target is slightly lower than those set in recent years, indicating more limited expectations for rapid economic acceleration.

Five-Year Plan Context

According to Li Qiang, the approach reflects the fact that 2026 marks the first year of the new Five-Year Plan cycle. The chosen targets are intended to provide room for structural reforms, risk management and stronger foundations for economic performance over the coming years.

The premier also noted that the objectives align with China’s long-term development goals extending to 2035. He said conditions remain favourable for achieving the targets and encouraged regional authorities to follow national guidelines while working steadily toward the growth objectives.

Overall, the government’s messaging suggests that China is entering the new five-year planning period with a cautious and strategic outlook. The emphasis on risk management and reform indicates that policymakers are prioritising stability and long-term development rather than rapid short-term expansion.