Macau Baccarat Side Bets Lift Hold Rates
Live-dealer baccarat side bets have played a role in lifting casino hold rates in Macau since their broader rollout in 2024, though the impact has varied notably between properties. Industry observers suggest that outcomes depend largely on customer profiles and how each venue is positioned within the market.
Higher Edge, Gradual Uptake
Ryan Ho Hong Wai of Macao Polytechnic University explained that baccarat side bets typically carry a significantly higher house edge than standard wagers, often reaching the mid-teen range. Even when only a portion of players engage with these options, the effect can still raise overall hold percentages. This trend aligns with the moderate but noticeable improvement in hold rates seen across Macau casinos following the introduction of side bets, particularly in high-traffic venues.
Clayton Peister, Managing Director at Differential Labs, also highlighted the relationship between house advantage and revenue. Based on an analysis of U.S. casino data, he noted that a 10% increase in house edge can correspond to roughly a 3% rise in win, suggesting a comparable dynamic may apply in Macau.
Evolving Market Structure
Baccarat remains the dominant game across both mass and VIP segments in Macau, with side bets now widely available in both areas. Since 2024, operators have introduced new options such as Small 6/Big 6, Lucky 7 and Super Lucky 7, supported by smart table technology that enhances gameplay and tracking.
Some operators have since adjusted their approach. For example, Sands China Ltd introduced a baccarat progressive jackpot in mid-2025 but discontinued it in March this year. Others have streamlined their side bet offerings across different gaming floors.
Mixed Results Across Properties
Performance data shows that several casinos recorded year-on-year improvements in non-rolling chip win rates during 2024 and 2025, including The Londoner Macao, MGM Macau, Studio City, Galaxy Macau and Grand Lisboa Palace. Rolling chip win rates also improved at venues such as MGM Cotai, City of Dreams Macau and Galaxy Macau.
However, results have not been consistent across all properties. Some venues did not show steady growth over the same period, even though their performance often remained above expected hold levels.
Customer Dynamics Matter
According to Ho, newer properties tend to begin with lower win rates but can improve as they build engagement and encourage longer play sessions. More time at the tables increases the number of hands played, which can influence overall performance.
Peister added that player behaviour is also critical. Casinos serving customers with limited budgets may see smaller gains from higher-edge side bets, as these players tend to lose funds more quickly and reduce their time on the floor.
Internal shifts within operator portfolios can also affect outcomes. When companies operate multiple venues, marketing focus and high-value customers may concentrate in certain properties, leaving others with a less profitable mix.
Volatility Remains a Factor
Despite the broad availability of side bets, their impact has differed across the market, highlighting the importance of property-specific conditions. Seasonal changes in visitor profiles, promotional activity and competitive positioning all contribute to performance variations.
Ho also pointed out that gaming results are inherently volatile due to the role of chance, making short-term trends difficult to interpret. In some cases, strong-performing properties may face natural limits to growth, with results eventually reverting toward long-term averages despite the introduction of new features.
