Macau Premium Segment Drives Strong 2025 Gaming Recovery

Macau’s casino market is showing renewed momentum, led by the premium segment, as both revenue and investor sentiment continue to climb.

Jefferies has upgraded its 2025 forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP 246 billion, reflecting stronger-than-expected activity across VIP and mass gaming segments. Early November data indicates rising daily revenue, signaling a faster recovery than many analysts had anticipated.

Premium Play Fuels Growth

October marked a turning point, prompting Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei to raise their fourth-quarter GGR growth forecast to 13% year-on-year, up from an earlier estimate of 6.6%. October’s monthly GGR reached MOP 24.09 billion, the highest figure since 2019. Early November continued this trend, with average daily revenue climbing 16% year-on-year, driven by both mass-market and premium players.

Rising regional financial confidence has played a key role. Strong performance in the A-share market, a rebound in the Hang Seng Index, renewed private equity investments and a surge in IPO activity have boosted spending power among high-value customers. Casino promotions and entertainment events during peak periods have further encouraged visits.

Top Operators Expand Market Share

Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment are benefiting most from the premium-led recovery. Jefferies expects Sands to capture 25% of the fourth-quarter market share, while Galaxy could reach 22.3%, reflecting the popularity of their premium offerings and strong brand positioning. These operators continue to attract the largest proportion of returning high-value visitors.

SJM Adjusts to Structural Shifts

SJM Holdings faces transitional challenges as it winds down its remaining satellite casinos. While the closures may temporarily reduce market share by roughly 1%, the company is focusing on consolidating operations around its flagship properties to retain most of its prior 5% share.

Macau Recovery Accelerates

Macau’s rebound is increasingly defined by premium and VIP segments, buoyed by stronger regional liquidity and stabilising tourism. Jefferies’ upgraded outlook reflects rising confidence in the market, suggesting that 2025 could end significantly stronger than earlier projections.

The bigger question now is not whether Macau is recovering, but how much further growth the market can achieve as spending power and investor confidence continue to rise.