Melco Q1 2026 Beats Forecast on Macau Gains

Melco Resorts & Entertainment delivered a first-quarter 2026 performance that came in ahead of expectations, supported by improved market share in Macau and strong results from its Philippine operations. Analysts noted that the group outperformed both consensus forecasts and its own guidance.

Earnings Outperform Expectations

According to Seaport Research, Melco reported higher-than-expected property EBITDA, with Macau properties and City of Dreams Manila providing the main contributions. Strong showings from key assets, including Studio City, helped lift overall results despite ongoing competition across core markets.

The quarter highlighted the company’s ability to generate solid earnings through a balanced performance across its portfolio, even as broader operating conditions remained uneven.

Gains in Macau

Melco’s market share in Macau rose to around 15.2%, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of more than 110 basis points. The improvement was attributed to better utilisation of electronic gaming machines and more focused player acquisition efforts.

However, the Macau market remains highly competitive. Analysts noted that increased player reinvestment continues to weigh on margins, with no significant easing of competitive pressure expected in the near term.

Strong Results in Manila

City of Dreams Manila also exceeded forecasts, with property EBITDA rising 24.4% year-on-year and 13.1% quarter-on-quarter. Growth was driven largely by the VIP segment, where volumes increased by over 30% compared to the previous year.

Higher hold rates further supported gross gaming revenue in the segment, making the Philippines a key contributor to the group’s quarterly performance.

Potential Headwinds Ahead

Looking ahead, Seaport Research flagged potential challenges in the second quarter. Rising energy costs and inflation linked to geopolitical tensions could impact operations in the Philippines, while competition in Manila remains intense.

Additional risks were identified in Cyprus, where external factors may also affect performance.

Outlook

Despite these concerns, Seaport maintained a positive outlook on Melco, citing its valuation and overall risk-reward profile. The company’s latest results underline its ability to strengthen its position in Macau and deliver growth in Manila, although sustaining that momentum will depend on navigating ongoing competition and external pressures.