Moody’s Forecasts Steady Growth for Asia’s Casino Sector

Moody’s Ratings expects Asia’s gaming sector to expand by 5% to 6% over the next 12 to 18 months, although growth is likely to vary across individual markets. In its latest industry report, the ratings agency said factors such as travel patterns and fuel-price sensitivity will influence performance throughout the region.

Macau Expected to Drive Regional Expansion

According to Moody’s, Macau is set to remain the strongest-performing gaming market in Asia, while operators across Southeast Asia are expected to post more moderate gains.

The agency projects Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will increase by approximately 6% in 2026, followed by growth of 4% to 5% in 2027. The outlook is supported by Macau’s close proximity to mainland China, which continues to encourage short-haul travel from Chinese visitors.

Based on these projections, Macau’s gaming revenue would recover to around 90% of 2019 levels in 2026, rising to 90%–95% by 2027. Moody’s also expects the VIP segment to remain structurally smaller, accounting for 30% or less of total GGR.

The report notes that improved competitive conditions, property ramp-ups, and newly opened facilities should contribute to stronger earnings, with combined market EBITDA forecast to grow 6% to 7% in 2026, reaching approximately US$8.6 billion to US$8.7 billion.

Southeast Asia Faces Slower Growth

Moody’s believes gaming markets across Southeast Asia remain more vulnerable to higher fuel prices because international air travel plays a larger role in attracting visitors.

As a result, casino revenue across the region is expected to record only single-digit growth during 2026 and 2027.

The agency noted that Macau is less exposed to these pressures, largely due to its reliance on shorter regional travel rather than long-haul tourism.

It added that disciplined reinvestment strategies and tighter cost controls should continue supporting EBITDA growth in Macau, while leverage across operators is expected to improve gradually over the next 18 months.

Individual Operator Outlooks

Outside Macau, Genting Bhd is projected to increase adjusted EBITDA from MYR8.2 billion in 2025 to between MYR8.9 billion and MYR10.0 billion during 2026 and 2027. Moody’s attributed the expected improvement partly to the ongoing expansion of Resorts World New York City, where the company has committed US$5.5 billion toward securing a full-scale casino licence.

Meanwhile, Genting’s Malaysian operations, including Resorts World Genting, are expected to remain relatively stable as rising operating expenses offset revenue growth.

For Genting Singapore, owner of Resorts World Sentosa, Moody’s forecasts EBITDA to decline from SGD888 million in 2025 to SGD836 million in 2026, citing intense competition and cost pressures, before recovering to around SGD880 million in 2027.

The report also projects NagaCorp Ltd to maintain adjusted EBITDA of approximately US$400 million annually, supported by stable visitation levels and efficient operating costs at NagaWorld in Phnom Penh.

Debt Position Remains Manageable

Moody’s expects most Macau casino operators to improve leverage primarily through higher earnings, although continued investment, capital expenditure and shareholder distributions are likely to limit debt reduction.

Among Macau operators, SJM Holdings is expected to maintain relatively high leverage through 2026 before gradually benefiting from the reallocation of satellite gaming tables.

Across Southeast Asia, Moody’s believes Genting’s leverage will remain elevated because of ongoing investment projects, while NagaCorp is expected to continue operating with comparatively low leverage.

The agency concluded that refinancing risks across Asia’s gaming sector remain limited, supported by healthy liquidity levels and favourable market conditions. For Macau-focused operators, the largest bond maturities are expected in 2028 and 2029, with annual repayments estimated at US$4.5 billion to US$5.0 billion.