Prediction Markets Remain Illegal in the Philippines

A leading legal expert has underscored that prediction markets (online platforms allowing users to trade on the likelihood of future events) currently lack a clear regulatory framework in the Philippines. Despite their growing global interest, such platforms cannot operate locally without authorization from the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR), which has yet to establish a licensing category for them.

Considered Gambling Under Local Law

According to lawyer Marie Antonette “Tonet” Quiogue of Arden Consulting, prediction markets are likely to be classified as gambling under existing Philippine law. The Revised Penal Code defines gambling as any game of chance involving wagers of money or valuables on uncertain outcomes. Even if a participant’s analysis influences a decision, the reliance on chance to determine the result still categorizes it as gambling.

Licensing and Regulatory Constraints

PAGCOR is the sole authority empowered to license gambling activities nationwide. However, Quiogue emphasized that no prediction market platform has been approved so far. These platforms might fall under the “special betting” classification, but the regulator’s current scope covers casino operations, e-gaming, and sports wagering only.

Without a proper license type, any prediction market operating with real-money bets in the Philippines would be deemed illegal, carrying criminal penalties for both operators and participants.

No Alternative Oversight Options

The Philippines also lacks an alternative financial regulatory route for prediction markets. Unlike the United States where certain platforms may register with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)  there is no equivalent framework in the country to treat these platforms as financial exchanges or derivatives markets. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does not have jurisdiction over such activities either, leaving no clear legal pathway for registration.

Global Regulation and Industry Debate

Worldwide, regulation of prediction markets remains inconsistent. Countries such as the UK and the US have permitted limited licensed operations, while others including Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan prohibit them entirely, treating them as gambling.
In the US, the American Gaming Association (AGA) has criticized platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for offering event-based or sports markets without sufficient consumer safeguards, such as age verification, anti-money laundering protocols and responsible gaming measures.

Uncertain Future for Legalization

For now, experts agree that prediction markets in the Philippines face a long road to legitimacy. With no specific legislation or regulatory guidance, platforms operating in this space would fall under illegal gambling activities. Unless PAGCOR develops a dedicated licensing structure or Congress enacts new legislation, prediction markets will remain outside the country’s legal gaming landscape.