Wynn Al Marjan Island Still Targets 2027 Opening

Texas Capital Securities believes Wynn Al Marjan Island remains on course to open in 2027, despite recent geopolitical developments that have affected investor sentiment toward Wynn Resorts. According to analyst David Bain, the long-term outlook for the US$5.1 billion integrated resort in the UAE has not changed.

2027 Opening Outlook Remains Unchanged

In a note released on Monday, Bain said geopolitical tensions have weighed on Wynn Resorts’ share performance in recent months, particularly as investors had linked the company’s momentum to the planned opening of its UAE integrated resort. However, he noted that these developments have not altered Texas Capital Securities’ long-term expectations for the project.

The brokerage continues to forecast a 2027 launch and believes the resort still offers the potential for stronger earnings and valuation over time, despite any short-term uncertainty.

Wynn Resorts had previously announced that the property would open in spring 2027. During its first-quarter earnings call in May, however, the company acknowledged that the project’s opening schedule would be pushed back slightly after analysts raised questions about regional tensions involving the United States and Iran. Wynn Al Marjan Island is being developed in Ras Al Khaimah, located across the Gulf from Iran.

Las Vegas Forecast Adjusted

While maintaining a positive outlook on the UAE development, Texas Capital Securities lowered its second-quarter estimates for Wynn Resorts’ Las Vegas business to below market consensus.

Bain said industry checks pointed to a softer June and challenging year-on-year comparisons that may not yet be fully reflected in market expectations. He suggested that Wynn’s previous strong performance has made current comparisons more difficult.

Even so, the brokerage expects Wynn Las Vegas to continue outperforming competitors in terms of key performance indicators and market share.

MGM Resorts Also Reviewed

The report also examined MGM Resorts International, which operates in Macau through MGM China Holdings and is developing Japan’s first integrated resort casino, MGM Osaka, alongside local partners. The JPY1.51 trillion project is scheduled to open in 2030.

Texas Capital Securities noted that MGM’s shares are trading at around 3% below the US$48.30 per share cash offer from People Inc, led by Barry Diller. According to Bain, that discount suggests investors believe a higher offer could eventually emerge.

He also referenced the separate acquisition proposal involving Caesars Entertainment, stating that, based on the implied valuation from that transaction, MGM could be valued at approximately US$54 per share. Bain added that the comparison did not include MGM Japan, which he estimated could generate around US$800 million in MGM-owned EBITDAM.

The brokerage also expects MGM to report EBITDA growth in Las Vegas during the second quarter of 2026, marking the first increase since the third quarter of 2024.

Focus Remains on Growth and Valuation

Texas Capital Securities said investor attention continues to centre on the timing of Wynn’s UAE project and MGM’s valuation prospects. Wynn’s long-term growth remains closely linked to the opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island, while MGM’s outlook is influenced by takeover speculation and expansion projects in both Las Vegas and Japan.

Earlier this year, Caesars Entertainment confirmed it had agreed to be acquired by Fertitta Entertainment in a transaction valued at approximately US$17.6 billion in cash, with the buyer also assuming around US$11.9 billion in debt. Fertitta Entertainment is led by Tilman Fertitta, who is also the largest individual shareholder of Wynn Resorts.