Brazil Illegal Betting Market Could Reach R$43.3bn

The illegal betting sector in Brazil could be generating between R32.9billionandR43.3 billion in annual gross gaming revenue (GGR), according to the second section of Off the Radar 2.0: Measuring and Combating the Illegal Betting Market.

The study was prepared by economic consultancy LCA at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming (IBJR). It estimates that unauthorized betting operators are also responsible for between R9.1billionandR12 billion in tax revenue that the Brazilian government fails to collect each year.

The findings build on research released in August, which estimated that illegal operators accounted for between 38% and 44% of Brazil’s fixed-odds betting market. This represented a decline from the 41% to 51% share estimated for 2025.

Legal Betting Market Forecast to Reach R$54.3 Billion

To determine the size of Brazil’s illegal betting market, LCA combined the market-share estimates from the earlier study with information from the Federal Revenue Service.

Between January and July 2026, the government collected R$8.7 billion in taxes connected to betting activity. Based on an estimated effective tax rate of 27.6%, LCA calculated that the regulated betting market generated R$31.6 billion during the period.

Assuming the same annual growth rate continues through the remainder of 2026, the consultancy projects that the regulated market could reach R$54.3 billion in revenue for the full year. That would represent a 46.8% increase compared with the previous year.

When both regulated and unauthorized betting activity are combined, Brazil’s total betting market could generate between R87billionandR98 billion in GGR during 2026.

Unauthorized Operators Could Reduce Tax Collection by R$12 Billion

According to LCA, the government could be missing between R9.1billionandR12 billion in annual tax revenue as a result of betting activity taking place through unlicensed operators.

The estimate is based on taxes that could be collected from the potential betting volume generated by those platforms. However, it excludes income tax associated with bettors’ winnings as well as fees related to operator inspections.

The report also models the effect of moving 5 percentage points of betting activity from unauthorized to licensed operators. LCA estimates that such a shift could produce an additional R1.2billiontoR1.3 billion in tax revenue each year.

At the same time, the consultancy notes that increasing taxes imposed on regulated operators could widen their competitive disadvantage compared with illegal platforms. This could, in turn, reduce the share of betting activity taking place through licensed operators.

2026 World Cup May Drive Higher Betting Activity

The second part of Off the Radar 2.0 also examines betting activity surrounding the 2026 World Cup.

The report cites a survey by Instituto Locomotiva, which found that 61% of people who place bets expected to wager more money during the tournament than at any other point over the previous year. Within that group, 61% said they expected to bet “a little more”, while 26% said they would bet “much more”.

LCA also points to the possibility of a sharp increase in sports betting activity during major matches. According to the consultancy, this could intensify competition between regulated and illegal operators.

The report therefore highlights advertising, payment methods and the availability of unauthorized betting platforms as areas requiring attention during major sporting events and in the period following them.