Dutch Gambling Tax Hikes Trigger Industry Revenue Warning

Four major stakeholders in the Dutch gambling sector have issued a strong warning to policymakers, sending an open letter to the country’s House of Representatives. The initiative was led by the Netherlands Online Gambling Association (VNLOK), with support from Holland Casino Group and the Dutch Lottery.

In their statement, the organisations argued that recent increases in gambling taxes have had the opposite effect of what was intended. Instead of boosting government revenue, they claim the policy has reduced income from the regulated sector.

According to data collected from VNLOK member companies, gambling tax revenue is expected to fall by €43.5 million in 2025. This would bring total tax income down to €288 million, significantly below the €322 million that had originally been forecast. The decline represents a 13% shortfall compared with earlier projections.

At the end of 2024, Dutch lawmakers approved changes to the gambling tax structure. The tax on gross gambling revenue rose to 34.2% in January 2025, before increasing further to 37.8%.

Operators Warn of Market Pressure and Illegal Competition

Industry representatives say they warned authorities that such high tax levels would place significant strain on licensed operators. With margins shrinking, companies have been forced to introduce measures to maintain their businesses.

However, these adjustments have had unintended consequences, pushing some players toward alternative options outside the regulated market. The Dutch gambling regulator, the Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), acknowledged in August that the first tax increase did not achieve its intended objectives.

The figures cited by VNLOK also do not yet reflect the impact of the additional tax increase implemented in January 2026, meaning operators expect financial pressure to intensify further.

The land-based casino sector is also experiencing major changes. Research from Atlas Research suggests that numerous physical venues may close as the industry restructures. The KSA reported that the number of retail gambling locations declined by 9% last year, with many operators shutting down due to rising costs.

At the same time, the illegal gambling market appears to be expanding. VNLOK estimates that betting activity on unlicensed platforms recently surpassed the regulated market. Illegal online operators reportedly handled €617 million in wagers, compared with €600 million processed by licensed companies.

The trade bodies also highlighted the impact on sports funding, noting that approximately €15 million in financial support for Dutch sports programs has been lost as operators struggle with higher tax obligations.

Industry Calls for Policy Review

In their message to the parliamentary Standing Committee, the organisations outlined three key requests. First, they asked the government to closely evaluate the real impact of the recent tax increases, particularly how they may be driving players toward illegal operators.

State Secretary Eugène Heijnen previously indicated that such monitoring would take place, and the industry is urging authorities to complete the review before the end of the second quarter.

Second, the results of this assessment should be considered when policymakers review the regulatory framework in August.

Finally, the organisations stressed that future policies should maintain a balance between taxation levels and player protection. According to the industry groups, the Dutch market demonstrates how excessive tax pressure can weaken regulated systems and reduce their effectiveness.

Operators now hope lawmakers will take these concerns into account and consider adjustments that support both regulation and sustainable market growth.