Kenya Plans Prediction Market Licensing for 2026–2027

Kenya is preparing to establish a dedicated licensing framework for prediction market operators under its 2026–2027 gambling licensing cycle, according to the country’s Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA).

Peter Karimi, Director General of the GRA, said prediction markets fall within the definition of gambling in Kenya because participants stake money on the potential outcomes of events.

The country already has a legal framework covering several gambling sectors. Under the Gambling Control Act 2025, licences are available for online bookmakers, lotteries and casinos.

Existing online gambling requirements could provide a starting point for regulating prediction markets. These rules cover areas such as payment processing, advertising and age verification, although adjustments may be necessary to accommodate the specific characteristics of prediction market services.

The regulator has also highlighted challenges that distinguish prediction markets from conventional gambling operations. Cross-border activity is a particular concern, especially when operators based in one jurisdiction offer gambling services to customers across multiple countries.

Kenya’s plans come as other African markets explore how to regulate prediction markets. Liberia has already introduced specific rules targeting the sector as part of a broader set of gambling regulatory measures, making it the first African country to adopt dedicated prediction market regulation.