Macau April GGR Rises 5.5% but Misses Forecasts
Gross gaming revenue in Macau reached MOP19.89 billion ($2.47 billion) in April, marking a 5.5% increase compared to the same period last year. The result, however, came in below market expectations, largely due to weaker VIP hold.
According to Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners, the underlying performance of the market was stronger than the headline figure suggests. Adjusting for hold, growth would likely have been in the range of 10% to 11%.
VIP play was the primary factor behind the softer result, with lower hold affecting overall revenue despite stable activity levels. Premium segments continued to perform well, helping to support the broader market.
Compared to March, April revenue declined on a monthly basis, with average daily GGR estimated at MOP663 million ($82.4 million). This figure was below the average recorded during the first quarter. In terms of operator performance, MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment are believed to have gained market share, while Sands China and Melco Resorts & Entertainment likely saw declines.
Despite the weaker headline number, demand indicators remained relatively steady. Visitor volumes were estimated to have increased by around 10% year-on-year, with premium segments continuing to drive much of the recovery.
The data suggests that Macau’s rebound is still heavily reliant on higher-value customers, while mass-market segments particularly overnight visitors have yet to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Looking ahead, May is expected to show stronger performance. Seaport forecasts growth of around 8.5%, supported by the five-day Labour Day holiday period from May 1 to May 5. Some travel demand may also have shifted from April into May, providing an additional boost.
However, the longer-term outlook points to slower growth in the second half of 2026. Seaport expects full-year GGR to rise by approximately 7%, with stronger momentum in the first half of the year compared to more modest gains later on, as year-on-year comparisons become more challenging.
