Macau Casino Profits Set to Outpace Revenue in 2026

Macau’s casino sector is entering 2026 with profitability trends that appear stronger than headline revenue growth alone would suggest. While analysts anticipate gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise by roughly 6 percent this year, operating profits are expected to grow faster, in the range of 6 to 7 percent. The gap points to a notable shift in how operators are converting gaming volume into earnings, with efficiency now playing a larger role.

The outlook follows confirmation from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau that Macau generated MOP247.4 billion (around US$30.9 billion) in GGR during 2025, representing a 9.1 percent increase compared with 2024. Although the recovery remained solid, it fell short of rapid expansion. Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella forecasts GGR growth of 5.8 percent in 2026, reaching approximately US$32.8 billion, followed by a further 5.0 percent increase in 2027 to about US$34.4 billion. Near-term expectations remain upbeat, with January GGR projected to rise 10.9 percent year-on-year to US$2.53 billion, and first-quarter revenue estimated at roughly US$8.0 billion, up 10.6 percent.

Profit Growth Overtakes Revenue Expansion

JP Morgan analysts broadly align with the revenue outlook, projecting 5 to 6 percent GGR growth for the year, but their focus is firmly on profitability. They expect earnings growth to finally surpass revenue expansion for the first time since the pandemic, with profit increases of 6 to 7 percent. That shift would mark a normalization phase after 2025, when industry EBITDA rose only 6 percent despite GGR climbing 9 percent, highlighting lingering cost pressures and structural inefficiencies.

According to JP Morgan, even if revenue growth moderates compared with last year, profit momentum should remain intact or strengthen further. This combination suggests operators have made meaningful progress in tightening cost structures and improving operating leverage.

A Closer Look at 2025 Performance

Reviewing last year’s results, JP Morgan pointed to a particularly strong fourth quarter, which delivered post-pandemic record GGR of MOP66.1 billion (around US$8.24 billion). That figure represented a 15 percent year-on-year increase and 6 percent sequential growth, significantly lifting full-year performance and nearly doubling the bank’s original 5 percent growth forecast.

After a slow start to the year, each subsequent quarter exceeded expectations and outperformed normal seasonal trends. Sequential growth accelerated steadily, rising 1 percent in the second quarter, then 8 percent, 13 percent, and finally 15 percent by year-end. VIP gaming proved especially resilient, expanding by 23 percent despite earlier projections for a slight decline. The mass market and slot segment also outpaced forecasts, growing 7 percent versus an initial estimate of 5 percent.