Macau GGR Beats Forecasts Despite Uneven Recovery
Macau’s casino industry closed March with gaming revenue surpassing expectations, offering short-term support for operators while highlighting an uneven recovery trajectory. According to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ), gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP22.61 billion (approximately $2.8 billion), marking a 15% increase year-on-year. The result exceeded forecasts from Seaport Research Partners and Bloomberg Asia, which had anticipated growth of around 11–12%, supported by solid premium play and stable VIP hold levels.
Market Share Shifts and Analyst Views
Compared to February, MGM China and Melco recorded gains in market share, while Sands China and Galaxy experienced declines. Despite MGM China’s recent performance, Seaport maintains a Neutral rating, citing a lack of near-term catalysts to drive outperformance.
Melco, however, continues to hold a Buy rating, with analysts pointing to improvements at City of Dreams and Studio City that are beginning to deliver results. The firm views the share price weakness seen in late 2025 as temporary.
Sands China also retains a Buy recommendation, with analysts noting that although it lost share in late 2024 and early 2025, it has gradually recovered over the past three quarters by adjusting its marketing strategies and refining reinvestment practices.
Galaxy is similarly rated Buy, with Seaport identifying it as a long-term contender in Macau. Growth is expected to be supported by the ongoing ramp-up of Phase 3, including the ultra-luxury Capella and the planned launch of Phase 4 in late 2027. Analysts consider Galaxy a strong second-largest operator in the market, supported by a solid financial position and potential for increased market share once new developments come online.
Growth Outlook Moderates
Looking ahead, Seaport projects GGR growth of 12% in April, followed by an 8.2% increase in May as year-on-year comparisons become more demanding. For 2026, overall growth is forecast at 7%, with a stronger first half (up 9.8%) and a slower second half (4.4%) unless demand or liquidity conditions improve.
The firm also notes that player reinvestment and agent commissions remain elevated and are unlikely to decline in the near term. If high-end or agent-driven segments expand more quickly, these costs could rise further relative to overall revenue. While there has been speculation about potential regulatory intervention to limit commissions, no such measures are currently expected.
Base Mass Segment Lags Recovery
Despite the strong headline figures, the recovery remains uneven, particularly in the base mass segment. Seaport estimates that base mass gaming is still about 15% below 2019 levels, while overnight base mass, typically a higher-value segment, has only recovered to around 75–80% of pre-pandemic levels.
A stronger rebound in this segment, especially from overnight visitors, is seen as essential for sustaining long-term growth. This will depend on continued access to liquidity and supportive visa policies. As long as funding conditions remain stable, Macau is expected to maintain demand in the premium segment, even as overall growth begins to slow.
