Macau GGR to Outpace Rivals but Profit Growth Slows

Macau’s casino sector is projected to outpace key global markets in revenue growth during 2026, though profitability is expected to rise more modestly. In a recent note, Morgan Stanley estimated that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will increase by around 6% year-on-year, compared with roughly 1% growth forecast for both Singapore and Las Vegas. The market has already shown momentum, with 2025 GGR climbing 9.1% to MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion).

Despite stronger top-line growth, profit expansion is expected to remain limited. The bank forecasts EBITDA growth of just 2% in 2026, reflecting a slowdown from the previous year and falling short of broader market expectations. Ongoing cost pressures are seen as a key factor that could weigh on margins and potentially lead to downward earnings revisions.

Structural Cost Pressures Weigh on Margins

Morgan Stanley highlighted that rising costs in Macau are becoming structural, particularly as operators focus more on premium mass players. Increased spending on incentives and promotions for mid-tier customers is expected to continue impacting profitability.

The bank identified three main factors behind its cautious outlook on EBITDA growth: a likely deceleration in GGR during the second half of 2026 due to tougher year-on-year comparisons and softer base mass demand sustained high promotional spending and continued growth in non-gaming expenses.

These non-gaming costs are partly linked to commitments made by Macau’s six concessionaires under their current 10-year licences, which began in January 2023. Taking these elements into account, Morgan Stanley has revised its view on Macau gaming from “attractive” to “in-line” anticipating slower GGR growth from May and potential EBITDA declines in the second and third quarters.

Singapore Outlook: Stable Revenue, Softer Profits

The bank also assessed Singapore’s casino market, where Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands dominate. Gaming volumes in the city-state are expected to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in 2026, supported by continued strength at Marina Bay Sands and new developments at Resorts World Sentosa.

However, Morgan Stanley does not expect Genting Singapore to gain share from its rival, noting a lack of progress in recent years. Additionally, elevated hold rates reported by Marina Bay Sands in 2025 are likely to normalise.

As a result, the bank expects volume gains to be offset by lower hold, leaving Singapore’s overall GGR broadly flat and leading to an estimated 1% year-on-year decline in EBITDA for 2026.