Portugal Orders Polymarket Exit Over Election Betting

Portugal’s gambling regulator has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to cease operations in the country following suspicious trading activity linked to the recent presidential election. The decision follows an unusual surge in betting volumes and dramatic odds movements shortly before official results were released.

The Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) determined that Polymarket’s offering violates Portuguese law, which explicitly prohibits wagering on political events. As a result, the authority instructed the platform to withdraw from the market and initiated blocking procedures to restrict access within Portugal.

Election Betting Triggers Regulatory Alarm

Regulatory scrutiny intensified after more than €4 million was wagered on Polymarket in the final hours of election day. Trading activity accelerated rapidly as polling stations were still open, coinciding with the circulation of private exit poll information.

According to data reported by Renascença, António José Seguro entered election day as the market favourite, with odds implying a 60% chance of victory, while André Ventura trailed at around 30%. However, by 6:00 PM roughly one hour before polls closed Seguro’s probability surged to 96%, later reaching 100% once early projections confirmed his win.

Similar patterns appeared across related markets. In bets predicting the next President of the Republic, Seguro’s implied probability jumped from 68.6% to over 93% within a single hour, while Cotrim de Figueiredo’s chances fell sharply from 22% to just 2.5%. By the time the first official results were broadcast at 8:00 PM, Seguro’s odds had stabilised near 95%.

During this same window, betting volumes spiked significantly, with approximately €5 million traded between 6:00 PM and 8:00 PM. The primary presidential market reportedly exceeded $103 million in total wagers, while additional side markets contributed close to $18.1 million.

Regulators concluded that the timing and accuracy of the trades strongly suggested the use of non-public information, prompting immediate enforcement action.

Platform Ordered to Exit Portuguese Market

SRIJ stated that it became aware of Polymarket’s activities only recently and quickly determined that the platform was operating without authorisation. In a formal notice, the regulator emphasised that Portuguese law bans all betting on political events, regardless of whether they are domestic or international.

Polymarket was instructed to halt operations within 48 hours. When the platform remained accessible beyond that deadline, authorities escalated the response by instructing internet service providers to block access to the site.

The enforcement means Polymarket will be unavailable to Portuguese users ahead of the scheduled presidential runoff on February 8.

Growing List of Jurisdictions Taking Action

Portugal now joins a widening group of jurisdictions that have moved to restrict or block Polymarket. The platform is already banned in Ukraine, Singapore, Romania and France, and faces access restrictions in countries including Australia, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran and North Korea.

In the United States, Polymarket continues to face legal pressure, including a recent lawsuit filed in Nevada. Concerns around insider trading have grown following several high-profile political markets, including the platform’s highly accurate call on Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential victory.

Despite mounting regulatory challenges and market exits, Polymarket reported continued growth in political wagering, with December 2025 figures showing a 28% increase year-on-year and more than $4.3 billion wagered across political markets.