Japan Explores Reward-Based Prediction Markets

Prediction market platforms are beginning to attract attention in Japan, but the country’s strict gambling regulations are forcing companies to develop alternative models that avoid real-money wagering.

While prediction markets have gained popularity globally by allowing users to trade on the outcomes of future events, Japan’s legal framework limits platforms that involve financial stakes. As a result, several companies are exploring systems that reward accurate predictions with points instead of cash or cryptocurrency.

One example is POYP, which presents itself as a forecasting platform where users predict the outcomes of political, sporting and entertainment events. Participants earn virtual coins for correct predictions, while incorrect forecasts do not result in any financial loss.

By removing monetary deposits and withdrawals, platforms such as POYP position their services as engagement-based products rather than gambling activities.

Companies Explore Alternative Models

Other businesses are following a similar approach.

IGS operates a prediction platform known as Signals, while NERO YOSO is developing forecasting features designed for integration with LINE, one of Japan’s most widely used messaging applications.

The strategy reflects an effort to remain within existing regulations while still offering interactive prediction experiences.

Interest has also expanded beyond emerging startups.

Gaming company Gumi Group revealed in late 2025 that it was examining the potential of a prediction market powered by blockchain and artificial intelligence. According to reports, the company is considering a model in which prediction activities remain separate from any form of monetary reward.

That separation is considered important under Japan’s regulatory approach, where authorities often assess the overall flow of value throughout a platform rather than focusing solely on direct cash transactions.

International Platforms Remain Interested

Global prediction market operator Polymarket has also expressed interest in Japan.

The company has appointed Mike Eidlin, who is associated with the Jupiter ecosystem, as its representative in the country and is reportedly working toward obtaining regulatory approval by 2030. The objective remains long-term, with no immediate launch expected.

Legal uncertainty surrounding prediction markets continues to be evident.

In June 2026, cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank warned customers that participation in prediction market platforms could lead to account restrictions because of potential conflicts with Japanese gambling legislation. The notice highlighted the cautious approach domestic financial institutions continue to take toward these products.

A Different Direction for Prediction Markets

Instead of relying on trading fees generated through financial speculation, Japanese platforms are increasingly experimenting with advertising-supported services, loyalty programmes and third-party rewards.

Whether a points-based model can deliver the same forecasting accuracy as traditional prediction markets remains uncertain. Conventional markets often rely on financial incentives to encourage participants to research information and reassess their opinions as events develop.

For now, Japan’s emerging prediction market sector appears to be developing along its own path, combining forecasting features with reward-based participation while remaining separate from real-money betting.