Macau GDP Growth Slows to 0.1% in Q3 2026

Macau’s economic expansion almost stalled in the third quarter of 2026, with weaker gaming activity limiting growth despite stronger tourism outside casinos and increased construction investment.

Preliminary data from the Statistics and Census Service showed that real GDP increased by just 0.1% year-on-year to MOP106.06 billion (US$13.13 billion) in the three months ending September 30. This marked a slowdown from growth of 0.3% in the second quarter and 7.1% in the first three months of the year.

Although non-gaming tourism and construction activity supported the economy, the decline in gaming services exports offset part of those gains.

Gaming Services Exports Decline 4.8%

Exports of gaming services fell by 4.8% year-on-year during the third quarter. The statistics service linked the contraction to a temporary adjustment in gross gaming revenue amid external conditions.

The decline followed four consecutive months of year-on-year decreases in casino gross gaming revenue, with September marking the latest monthly fall, according to separate government figures.

Macau's GDP calculations classify gaming and tourism services as exports because they capture spending by visitors at casinos and other tourism-related businesses. As a result, changes in gaming services exports have a direct bearing on the city's overall economic performance.

Non-Gaming Tourism and Construction Provide Support

Other tourism-related services recorded more positive results, with exports increasing 6.6% year-on-year in the quarter. The statistics service attributed the growth to higher visitor numbers during the summer holiday season and tourism promotional campaigns.

Investment also contributed to economic activity. Gross fixed capital formation rose 17.2%, supported by faster progress on public and private construction projects.

The growth in non-gaming tourism and construction helped counterbalance the weaker gaming sector. However, these gains were not sufficient to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing compared with the first two quarters of 2026.

Macau GDP Expands 2.9% Over Nine Months

For the first nine months of 2026, Macau's GDP increased by 2.9% year-on-year to MOP316.13 billion.

Tourism activity, investment and household spending all contributed to the cumulative expansion. Gross fixed capital formation grew 4.6%, while private consumption expenditure increased 2.8%. Exports of services also advanced 3.4% compared with the same period a year earlier.

The statistics service linked the increase in service exports to higher visitor arrivals, supported by government initiatives to attract tourists and a series of large-scale themed events.

IMF Highlights Macau's Dependence on Gaming

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also identified risks arising from Macau's reliance on casino activity and visitors from mainland China.

In a consultation paper released towards the end of September, the organisation warned that this dependence leaves the economy and public finances exposed to external shocks and cyclical fluctuations.

The IMF highlighted competition within the gaming sector, slower economic growth in mainland China, trade disputes and broader global market instability as potential sources of pressure.

Its projections put Macau's real GDP growth at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027, compared with the 4.7% forecast for 2025. The expected slowdown reflects external pressures affecting the city's economic outlook.