South Korea Casinos Eye Tourism-Led Growth in 2026

South Korea’s casino industry could see stronger performance as inbound tourism reaches record levels, although the benefits are expected to be concentrated in mass-market gaming rather than VIP play, according to NH Investment & Securities.

Analyst Lee Hwa-jeong noted that South Korea welcomed 12.8 million international visitors in the first seven months of 2026, the highest figure ever recorded for that period. NH Investment expects total inbound arrivals for the full year to reach 23 million.

The rise has been led largely by Chinese visitors, while tourist numbers from Japan and Western markets have also increased.

According to NH Investment, growing visitor numbers should provide support for South Korea’s casinos that cater exclusively to foreign customers, with the mass-market segment expected to benefit most. However, the brokerage does not expect tourism growth to produce an equivalent improvement in VIP gaming.

The sector is also moving into a period where year-on-year comparisons will become more demanding. NH Investment therefore recommended watching September and October results closely to assess the durability of mass-market demand and determine whether VIP sentiment is beginning to recover.

Cautious View on Chinese VIP Demand

NH Investment maintained a cautious position on Chinese VIP activity ahead of the National Day holiday period in October.

The brokerage pointed to indications of softer sentiment among Chinese VIP gamblers in Macau, which could reduce expectations for the holiday period to deliver a substantial improvement in South Korean casino earnings.

The report also highlighted comments made by the Chinese embassy in Seoul in early August. The embassy reportedly expressed concerns about references in certain South Korean media reports describing Chinese nationals as a growth factor for the casino industry.

The embassy additionally urged restraint regarding casino marketing directed at Chinese citizens. NH Investment said the comments had not introduced direct restrictions on casino operations or regulation, although they could have a temporary negative effect on gaming sentiment.

As a result, the brokerage said operators should not rely on the National Day holiday alone to generate a significant earnings increase. September and October performance will instead provide a clearer indication of whether the rise in international visitors is translating into stronger mass-market casino activity.

Proposed Changes to Casino Levy

NH Investment also assessed proposed changes to South Korea’s casino regulations currently being pursued by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism through revisions to the Tourism Promotion Act.

Under the proposed amendment, the maximum annual contribution by casino businesses to the Tourism Promotion and Development Fund would rise from 10% to 15% of gross gaming revenue, or GGR. The changes would also establish a five-year licence renewal system.

NH Investment said the potential impact of the proposed measures had already been largely incorporated into the share price of Paradise Co Ltd. The brokerage estimated that the higher tourism-promotion levy would equal around 7.7% of Paradise Co’s projected operating profit for 2027.

Grand Korea Leisure Co Ltd is not expected to experience a material effect from the higher levy. NH Investment said its casinos were each forecast to record annual revenue below the level at which the increased contribution rate would become applicable.

Kangwon Land Targets Earnings Growth From 2028

Separately, NH Investment expects Kangwon Land Inc to deliver meaningful earnings growth beginning in 2028.

Kangwon Land is the only corporation permitted to establish an entertainment casino complex for South Korean citizens. The anticipated earnings improvement is linked to the development of the new casino area, which is planned to include 50 additional gaming tables and 250 slot machines.

The new gaming area is scheduled for completion by the end of 2027. At the same time, renovation work covering 477 hotel rooms and 280 condominium units is also expected to be finished.

Lee Hwa-jeong said the impact of the renovation programme had been less disruptive than previously anticipated. The analyst pointed to a casino hold rate of more than 30%, as well as improved hotel occupancy and higher average daily room rates.