Macau March GGR Seen Rising on Holiday Momentum

Macau’s casino market is projected to maintain its recent momentum into March, with analysts forecasting another month of year-on-year growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR).

Brokerage CLSA estimates March GGR at approximately MOP21.6 billion ($2.68 billion), marking a 9.7% increase compared with March 2023. That would translate into roughly MOP696 million per day, reflecting an improvement from February levels, according to analyst Jeffrey Kiang.

The forecast is slightly below the broader market view compiled by Bloomberg, which anticipates 13% annual growth, or about MOP22.2 billion ($2.75 billion). Still, CLSA highlighted supportive trends, particularly following February’s performance.

February GGR reached MOP20.6 billion ($2.56 billion), up 4.5% year on year and ahead of earlier reduced expectations. Average daily revenue for the month stood at approximately MOP736 million.

Performance in the final week of February has drawn particular attention. Between February 23 and 28, daily GGR averaged around MOP1.05 billion. Although below the MOP1.2 billion to MOP1.3 billion daily peak recorded during the Chinese New Year period, the figures suggested demand remained stable after the holiday surge. CLSA noted that premium players appear increasingly inclined to avoid peak travel periods, supporting steadier volumes outside major holiday windows.

Views on March vary modestly across institutions. Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella projects March GGR at roughly $2.65 billion, implying 7.7% year-on-year growth. This compares with a 10.2% increase indicated by Consensus Metrix data, underscoring differing expectations about the pace of momentum through the remainder of the month.

Looking further ahead, Deutsche Bank estimates first-quarter 2026 GGR at around $8.1 billion, up 11.7% year on year. For the full year, the bank forecasts total GGR of approximately $32.9 billion, representing annual growth of 6.4%. While expansion is expected to continue, the projections suggest a more gradual trajectory as the market progresses toward longer-term normalization levels.