Mexico’s Business Leaders Oppose Online Gambling Tax Hike

Mexico’s business community is voicing strong opposition to the government’s plan to raise the ad valorem duty on online gaming from 30% to 50%. Industry leaders warn the measure could lead to large-scale job losses, a decline in private investment and the growth of illegal betting operations nationwide.

The proposal was the central topic of an informal session between private sector representatives and members of the Chamber of Deputies’ Finance Committee. Business groups and unions urged lawmakers to reconsider the fiscal reform, arguing it could weaken both the formal economy and government tax revenues.

Private Sector Warns of Negative Economic Impact

Alfonso Pérez Lizaur, president of the Asociación de Permisionarios y Proveedores de Juegos y Sorteos AC, told legislators that the planned tax hike could have “catastrophic consequences” for the industry.

“Increasing gambling taxes will drive both players and operators to the black market, leading to major revenue losses and creating unfair competition for regulated casinos, lotteries and licensed gaming platforms,” Pérez Lizaur said. “Paradoxically, this may result in less tax income rather than more.”

He noted that the legal gaming and lottery sector is a key contributor to Mexico’s economy and public finances. According to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), regulated gaming generated MXN 42.2 billion in revenue, most of which comes from online platforms licensed by the Secretariat of the Interior (SEGOB) and the Tax Administration Service (SAT).

Fears of Black-Market Expansion

Industry groups are concerned that the proposed tax changes could unintentionally boost the unregulated gambling market. Licensed operators facing higher taxes might find it difficult to compete with offshore or illegal platforms that can offer better payouts and promotions.

Such a shift could weaken the legal gambling ecosystem and increase the risks of fraud and consumer exploitation. “Once users move to illegal platforms, bringing them back into the regulated sector is extremely challenging,” Pérez Lizaur cautioned.

Fiscal Debate and Timing

The issue will be part of the upcoming review of the 2026 economic package, presented in September by Finance Secretary Édgar Amador. Lawmakers will begin evaluating the fiscal impact of the proposal next week.

Industry experts are calling for a more balanced approach that ensures fiscal responsibility without stifling investment or innovation in Mexico’s regulated gaming sector. Over the past few years, the sector has made progress in aligning with international compliance standards and supporting social projects.

Call for Dialogue and Regulatory Balance

Gaming industry representatives are urging the government to engage in open dialogue with stakeholders before implementing any tax reform. They emphasize the need for a policy that balances tax revenue goals with competitiveness and consumer protection.

“The regulated casino and lottery sector makes a significant contribution to the formal economy and public programs,” Pérez Lizaur stated. “We need a system that attracts investment, promotes fair competition and doesn’t push people toward illegal alternatives.”

As the fiscal debate intensifies, it remains to be seen whether lawmakers will move forward with the proposed tax increase or opt for a more moderate solution that safeguards both the state’s financial goals and the stability of the regulated gaming industry.